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Posts Tagged ‘stock market’

Visible and General Historical Stock Regularities

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

What can you learn from these graphs? Actually, almost everything that there is to learn about investments—and I will explain these facts in great detail soon.
• The history indicates that stocks offered higher average rates of return than bonds, which in turn offered higher average rates of return than “cash.” However, keep in mind that this was only on average. In any given year, the relationship might have been reversed. For example in 2002, stock investors lost 22% of their wealth, while cash investors gained about 1.7%.
• Although stocks did well (on average), you could have lost your shirt investing in them, especially if you had bet on just one individual stock. For example, if you had invested $1 into United Airlines in 1970, you would have had only 22 cents left in 2002—and nothing the following year.
• Cash was the safest investment—its distribution is tightly centered around its mean, so there were no years with negative returns. Bonds were riskier. Stocks were riskier, yet. (Sometimes, stocks are called “noisy,” because it is really difficult to predict what they will turn out to offer.)
• There was some sort of relationship between risk and reward: the riskiest investments tended to have higher mean rates of return. (However, the risk has to be looked at “in context.” Thus, please do not overread the simple relationship between the mean and the standard deviation here.)
• Large portfolios consisting of many stocks tended to have less risk than individual stocks. The S&P500 fund had a risk of 17%, much less than the risk of most individual stocks. (This is due to diversification.)
• A positive average rate of return usually, but not always, translates into a positive com- pound holding rate of return. United Airlines had a positive average rate of return, despite having lost all investors’ money.
(You already know why: A stock that doubles and then halves has rates of return of +100% and –50%. It would have earned you a 0% total compound rate of return. But the average rate of return would have been positive, [100% + (−50%)]/2 = +25%.)
• Stocks tend to move together. For example, if you look at 2001–2002, not only did the S&P500 go down, but the individual stocks also tended to go down. In 1998, on the other hand, most tended to go up (or at least not down much). The mid-1990s were good to all stocks. And so on. In contrast, money market returns had little to do with the stock market. Long-term bonds were in between.
On annual frequency, the correlation between cash and the stock market (the S&P500) was about zero; between long-term bond returns and stock market around 30%; and between our individual stocks and the stock market around 40% to 70%. The fact that investment rates of return tend to move together will be important.

Reserving a Life Estate

Monday, May 18th, 2009

The parents can deed a remainder interest to the child and reserve to themselves a life estate. This is a method of assuring lifetime income for the parents. The child actually owns an interest in the land, but the right to use the land belongs to the parents during their lifetime. The parents, if they so desire, could give a lifetime lease to the child. The property is still subject to estate taxes when the parents have retained a life estate and have deeded a remainder interest to a child but the property is not subject to regular probate.
Advantages
• The child is assured of having the farm and the parents are entitled to income during their lifetime.
• If the parents have no other property, no regular probate proceeding will be necessary to determine fact of death and terminate the life estate. In this procedure, an estate tax return is prepared and a certificate of tax clearance is obtained from the tax commission. The cost of this shorter probate procedure is much less than the cost of a regular probate proceeding.
Disadvantages
• Conflicts regarding management of the property may arise between the life tenants and remaindermen.
• The child could sell his remainder interest to an uncooperative person. The parents could prevent this by inserting a clause in the deed that states, “if the child transferred his rights during the lifetime of either parent, the remainder interest would revert to the parents.”
• It is hard to value what the child is getting.
• The laws are unclear regarding how mineral interests are handled in a life estate.
• Once the life estate is created, parents cannot change their mind about how the property will be distributed at their death. Thus flexibility to handle changing circumstances is cancelled.
• Creditors of the child may be able to reach the child’s remainder interest and if the child has financial difficulties, his inheritance may be lost.