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Posts Tagged ‘investment’

Risks And Benefits Of Investing In Home Foreclosures

Friday, July 17th, 2009

House prices in 2009 may not be showing much movement upward in places like California, Nevada, and Florida, but they are starting to stabilize too. That, along with a special first-time home buyer (courtesy of the Federal stimulus package), may mean it’s a good time to look at buying a home. Even if you don’t live in these areas, some great deals can be obtained through investing in home foreclosures, which are at a record high. Just be sure you understand that this isn’t an investment without a downside. There can be some substantial risks, as well as benefits, when you choose to invest in a foreclosed home.

Risks

The first obvious risk is that the market may not have bottomed out. However, this can be offset by the fact that you can receive up to $8,000 credit on a first home through the stimulus package. If you buy the foreclosed home as a rental, rather than a primary home, you will not be able to take advantage of that credit. Be sure to understand what it takes to qualify so that the money you spend is not later eaten up in lost equity, should prices take another dive.

A foreclosed home cannot be guaranteed to be in good condition. If you don’t understand the market, the neighborhood, or the signs of a poor buy, it’s best to leave that to someone who does. It’s a very easy thing to swoop in a think that buying a home at $1,000 is going to make you rich. Instead, it could land you with unpaid back taxes, city fines, outrageous repair or replacement bills, and more. Don’t just buy because the price is right. Make sure to do your due diligence.

Benefits

If you are confident and experienced enough to take advantage of the fallen house market prices, you can stand to make a small fortune. Even if you don’t sell right away, if you buy in a good neighborhood, you can rent out the homes until the market improves, generating a positive cash flow from a small down payment.

Visible and General Historical Stock Regularities

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

What can you learn from these graphs? Actually, almost everything that there is to learn about investments—and I will explain these facts in great detail soon.
• The history indicates that stocks offered higher average rates of return than bonds, which in turn offered higher average rates of return than “cash.” However, keep in mind that this was only on average. In any given year, the relationship might have been reversed. For example in 2002, stock investors lost 22% of their wealth, while cash investors gained about 1.7%.
• Although stocks did well (on average), you could have lost your shirt investing in them, especially if you had bet on just one individual stock. For example, if you had invested $1 into United Airlines in 1970, you would have had only 22 cents left in 2002—and nothing the following year.
• Cash was the safest investment—its distribution is tightly centered around its mean, so there were no years with negative returns. Bonds were riskier. Stocks were riskier, yet. (Sometimes, stocks are called “noisy,” because it is really difficult to predict what they will turn out to offer.)
• There was some sort of relationship between risk and reward: the riskiest investments tended to have higher mean rates of return. (However, the risk has to be looked at “in context.” Thus, please do not overread the simple relationship between the mean and the standard deviation here.)
• Large portfolios consisting of many stocks tended to have less risk than individual stocks. The S&P500 fund had a risk of 17%, much less than the risk of most individual stocks. (This is due to diversification.)
• A positive average rate of return usually, but not always, translates into a positive com- pound holding rate of return. United Airlines had a positive average rate of return, despite having lost all investors’ money.
(You already know why: A stock that doubles and then halves has rates of return of +100% and –50%. It would have earned you a 0% total compound rate of return. But the average rate of return would have been positive, [100% + (−50%)]/2 = +25%.)
• Stocks tend to move together. For example, if you look at 2001–2002, not only did the S&P500 go down, but the individual stocks also tended to go down. In 1998, on the other hand, most tended to go up (or at least not down much). The mid-1990s were good to all stocks. And so on. In contrast, money market returns had little to do with the stock market. Long-term bonds were in between.
On annual frequency, the correlation between cash and the stock market (the S&P500) was about zero; between long-term bond returns and stock market around 30%; and between our individual stocks and the stock market around 40% to 70%. The fact that investment rates of return tend to move together will be important.